Lensing and high-z supernova surveys

Gravitational lensing causes the distribution of observed brightnesses of standard candles at a given redshift to be highly non-gaussian. The distribution is strongly, and asymmetrically, peaked at a value less than the expected value in a homogeneous Robertson-Walker universe. Therefore, given any small sample of observations in an inhomogeneous universe, the most likely observed luminosity is at flux values less than the Robertson-Walker value. This paper explores the impact of this systematic error due to lensing upon surveys predicated on measuring standard candle brightnesses. We re-analyze recent results from the high-z supernova team (Riess et al. 1998), both when most of the matter in the universe is in the form of compact objects (represented by the empty-beam expression, corresponding to the maximal case of lensing), and when the matter is continuously distributed in galaxies. We find that the best-fit model remains unchanged (at Omega_m=0, Omega_Lambda=0.45), but the confidence contours change size and shape, becoming larger (and thus allowing a broader range of parameter space) and dropping towards higher values of matter density, Omega_m (or correspondingly, lower values of the cosmological constant, Omega_Lambda). These effects are slight when the matter is continuously distributed. However, the effects become considerably more important if most of the matter is in compact objects. For example, neglecting lensing, the Omega_m=0.5, Omega_Lambda=0.5 model is more than 2 sigma away from the best fit. In the empty-beam analysis, this cosmology is at 1 sigma.Comment: 11 pages, 3 ps figures. uses aaspp4.sty. accepted to ApJ Letters. includes analysis of lensing due to matter continuously distributed in galaxie

Cosmology from supernova magnification maps

High-z Type Ia supernovae are expected to be gravitationally lensed by the foreground distribution of large-scale structure. The resulting magnification of supernovae is statistically measurable, and the angular correlation of the magnification pattern directly probes the integrated mass density along the line of sight. Measurements of cosmic magnification of supernovae therefore complements galaxy shear measurements in providing a direct measure of clustering of the dark matter. As the number of supernovae is typically much smaller than the number of sheared galaxies, the two-point correlation function of lensed Type Ia supernovae suffers from significantly increased shot noise. Neverthless, we find that the magnification map of a large sample of supernovae, such as that expected from next generation dedicated searches, will be easily measurable and provide an important cosmological tool. For example, a search over 20 sq. deg. over five years leading to a sample of ~ 10,000 supernovae would measure the angular power spectrum of cosmic magnification with a cumulative signal-to-noise ratio of ~20. This detection can be further improved once the supernova distance measurements are cross-correlated with measurements of the foreground galaxy distribution. The magnification maps made using supernovae can be used for important cross-checks with traditional lensing shear statistics obtained in the same fields, as well as help to control systematics. We discuss two applications of supernova magnification maps: the breaking of the mass-sheet degeneracy when estimating masses of shear-detected clusters, and constraining the second-order corrections to weak lensing observables.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, ApJL submitted; "Signal" discussed here is the extra covariance in astro-ph/050958

Problems with Pencils: Lensing Covariance of Supernova Distance Measurements

While luminosity distances from Type Ia supernovae (SNe) provide a powerful probe of cosmological parameters, the accuracy with which these distances can be measured is limited by cosmic magnification due to gravitational lensing by the intervening large-scale structure. Spatial clustering of foreground mass fluctuations leads to correlated errors in distance estimates from SNe. By including the full covariance matrix of supernova distance measurements, we show that a future survey covering more than a few square degrees on the sky, and assuming a total of ~2000 SNe, will be largely unaffected by covariance noise. ``Pencil beam'' surveys with small fields of view, however, will be prone to the lensing covariance, leading to potentially significant degradations in cosmological parameter estimates. For a survey with 30 arcmin mean separation between SNe, lensing covariance leads to a ~45% increase in the expected errors in dark energy parameters compared to fully neglecting lensing, and a ~20% increase compared to including just the lensing variance. Given that the lensing covariance is cosmology dependent and cannot be mapped out sufficiently accurately with direct weak lensing observations, surveys with small mean SN separation must incorporate the effects of lensing covariance, including its dependence on the cosmological parameters.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, PRL submitted; "Noise" discussed here is the "signal" in astro-ph/050957

Model-Independent Constraints on Dark Energy Density from Flux-averaging Analysis of Type Ia Supernova Data

We reconstruct the dark energy density $\rho_X(z)$ as a free function from current type Ia supernova (SN Ia) data (Tonry et al. 2003; Barris et al. 2003; Knop et al. 2003), together with the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) shift parameter from CMB data (WMAP, CBI, and ACBAR), and the large scale structure (LSS) growth factor from 2dF galaxy survey data. We parametrize $\rho_X(z)$ as a continuous function, given by interpolating its amplitudes at equally spaced $z$ values in the redshift range covered by SN Ia data, and a constant at larger $z$ (where $\rho_X(z)$ is only weakly constrained by CMB data). We assume a flat universe, and use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique in our analysis. We find that the dark energy density $\rho_X(z)$ is constant for 0 \la z \la 0.5 and increases with redshift $z$ for 0.5 \la z \la 1 at 68.3% confidence level, but is consistent with a constant at 95% confidence level. For comparison, we also give constraints on a constant equation of state for the dark energy. Flux-averaging of SN Ia data is required to yield cosmological parameter constraints that are free of the bias induced by weak gravitational lensing \citep{Wang00b}. We set up a consistent framework for flux-averaging analysis of SN Ia data, based on \cite{Wang00b}. We find that flux-averaging of SN Ia data leads to slightly lower $\Omega_m$ and smaller time-variation in $\rho_X(z)$. This suggests that a significant increase in the number of SNe Ia from deep SN surveys on a dedicated telescope \citep{Wang00a} is needed to place a robust constraint on the time-dependence of the dark energy density.Comment: Slightly revised in presentation, ApJ accepted. One color figure shows rho_X(z) reconstructed from dat

A tracker solution to the cold dark matter cosmic coincidence problem

Recently, we introduced the notion of "tracker fields," a form of quintessence which has an attractor-like solution. Using this concept, we showed how to construct models in which the ratio of quintessence to matter densities today is independent of initial conditions. Here we apply the same idea to the standard cold dark matter component in cases where it is composed of oscillating fields. Combining these ideas, we can construct a model in which quintessence, cold dark matter, and ordinary matter all contribute comparable amounts to the total energy density today irrespective of initial conditions.Comment: 8 pages, 2 eps figures, use epsfig.sty, accepted for publication in Physics Letters

Future supernovae data and quintessence models

The possibility to unambiguously determine the equation-of-state of the cosmic dark energy with existing and future supernovae data is investigated. We consider four evolution laws for this equation-of-state corresponding to four quintessential models, i.e. i) a cosmological constant, ii) a general barotropic fluid, iii) a perfect fluid with a linear equation-of-state and iv) a more physical model based on a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson field. We explicitly show the degeneracies present not only within each model but also between the different models : they are caused by the multi-integral relation between the equation-of-state of dark energy and the luminosity distance. Present supernova observations are analysed using a standard $\chi^2$ method and the minimal $\chi^2$ values obtained for each model are compared. We confirm the difficulty to discriminate between these models using present SNeIa data only. By means of simulations, we then show that future SNAP observations will not remove all the degeneracies. For example, wrong estimations of $\Omega_m$ with a good value of $\chi^2_{min}$ could be found if the right cosmological model is not used to fit the data. We finally give some probabilities to obtain unambiguous results, free from degeneracies. In particular, the probability to confuse a cosmological constant with a true barotropic fluid with an equation-of-state different from -1 is shown to be 95% at a $2 \sigma$ level.Comment: 12 pages. This improved version has been accepted for publication in M.N.R.A.

Localizing coalescing massive black hole binaries with gravitational waves

Massive black hole binary coalescences are prime targets for space-based gravitational wave (GW) observatories such as {\it LISA}. GW measurements can localize the position of a coalescing binary on the sky to an ellipse with a major axis of a few tens of arcminutes to a few degrees, depending on source redshift, and a minor axis which is $2 - 4$ times smaller. Neglecting weak gravitational lensing, the GWs would also determine the source's luminosity distance to better than percent accuracy for close sources, degrading to several percent for more distant sources. Weak lensing cannot, in fact, be neglected and is expected to limit the accuracy with which distances can be fixed to errors no less than a few percent. Assuming a well-measured cosmology, the source's redshift could be inferred with similar accuracy. GWs alone can thus pinpoint a binary to a three-dimensional ``pixel'' which can help guide searches for the hosts of these events. We examine the time evolution of this pixel, studying it at merger and at several intervals before merger. One day before merger, the major axis of the error ellipse is typically larger than its final value by a factor of $\sim 1.5-6$. The minor axis is larger by a factor of $\sim 2-9$, and, neglecting lensing, the error in the luminosity distance is larger by a factor of $\sim 1.5-7$. This large change over a short period of time is due to spin-induced precession, which is strongest in the final days before merger. The evolution is slower as we go back further in time. For $z = 1$, we find that GWs will localize a coalescing binary to within $\sim 10\ \mathrm{deg}^2$ as early as a month prior to merger and determine distance (and hence redshift) to several percent.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 5 tables. Version published in Ap

Bias and high-order galaxy correlation functions in the APM Galaxy Survey

On large scales, the higher order moments of the mass distribution, S_J=\xibar_J/\xibar_2^{J-1}, e.g., the skewness $S_3$ and kurtosis $S_4$, can be predicted using non-linear perturbation theory. Comparison of these predictions with moments of the observed galaxy distribution probes the bias between galaxies and mass. Applying this method to models with initially Gaussian fluctuations and power spectra $P(k)$ similar to that of galaxies in the APM survey, we find that the predicted higher order moments $S_J(R)$ are in good agreement with those directly inferred from the APM survey {\it in the absence of bias}. We use this result to place limits on the linear and non-linear bias parameters. Models in which the extra power observed on large scales (with respect to standard CDM) is produced by scale-dependent bias match the APM higher order amplitudes only if non-linear bias (rather than non-linear gravity) generates the observed higher order moments. When normalized to COBE DMR, these models are significantly ruled out by the $S_3$ observations. The cold plus hot dark matter model normalized to COBE can reproduce the APM higher order correlations if one introduces non-linear bias terms, while the low-density CDM model with a cosmological constant does not require any bias to fit the large-scale amplitudes.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures included, uuencoded postscript file (100 kB), Fermilab-Pub-94/207-

The Hubble constant and dark energy

The Hubble Constant measured from the anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is shown to be independent of small changes from the standard model of the redshift dependence of dark energy. Modifications of the Friedmann equation to include phantom power (w < -1), textures (w = -2/3) and curvature are considered, and constraints on these dark energy contributors from supernova observations are derived. Modified values for the density of matter inferred from cosmic density perturbations and from the CMB under these circumstances are also estimated, as exemplified by 2df and SDSS.Comment: PASP accepted; PASP September 201

Future Type Ia Supernova Data as Tests of Dark Energy from Modified Friedmann Equations

In the Cardassian model, dark energy density arises from modifications to the Friedmann equation, which becomes H^2 = g(\rhom), where g(\rhom) is a new function of the energy density. The universe is flat, matter dominated, and accelerating. The distance redshift relation predictions of generalized Cardassian models can be very different from generic quintessence models, and can be differentiated with data from upcoming pencil beam surveys of Type Ia Supernovae such as SNAP. We have found the interesting result that, once $\Omega_m$ is known to 10% accuracy, SNAP will be able to determine the sign of the time dependence of the dark energy density. Knowledge of this sign (which is related to the weak energy condition) will provide a first discrimination between various cosmological models that fit the current observational data (cosmological constant, quintessence, Cardassian expansion). Further, we have performed Monte Carlo simulations to illustrate how well one can reproduce the form of the dark energy density with SNAP. To be concrete we study a class of two parameter ($n$,$q$) generalized Cardassian models that includes the original Cardassian model (parametrized by $n$ only) as a special case. Examples are given of MP Cardassian models that fit current supernovae and CMB data, and prospects for differentiating between MP Cardassian and other models in future data are discussed. We also note that some Cardassian models can satisfy the weak energy condition $w>-1$ even with a dark energy component that has an effective equation of state $w_X < -1$.Comment: revised version accepted by Ap